John McCain is currently the front runner for the Republicans and is generally considered the only chance the Republicans have of beating either Clinton or Obama. Just being a Republican is baggage in this election.
I find it fascinating that polls currently suggest that Obama has a slightly better chance of beating McCain. The Democrats have momentum and probably will have to work to lose the general election. But McCain does have an advantage over Obama that would be a much tougher sell if McCain ran against Clinton. I strongly suspect that the “change” sales pitch would evaporate as the deciding factor in September or October as people realize that the one guy who has any experience at actually keeping the country safe, both as a soldier and a policymaker, is the old white guy (age will certainly become an issue and being both male and white is already something of a negative).
The very attributes that make Obama seem like a breath of fresh air will also highlight the fact that we have no idea whatsoever how he would handle a true challenge to American security. It seems to me that Americans are fairly predictable in this regard. Above all else, we are hiring somebody to keep our country safe. Legislators will ultimately deal with the economy, health-care, immigration and other domestic issues. But when we think about security, we look for a single person who embodies our resolve to keep America safe and who speaks for us on the world stage.
Obama may actually have a significant edge on McCain on the world stage. He is a great orator and the rest of the world may find him much easier to listen to than either McCain or Clinton. But when we get to late fall, I suspect that Hillary would have a much better chance of holding her own against McCain. Hillary has the chops to stand toe-to-toe with him on security issues. So McCain’s most potent advantage would effectively be neutralized. In most other areas, Clinton seems to be in closer touch than McCain with the middle-of-the-road American. And she still allows us to break a glass ceiling without too much risk.
If Obama is the Democratic candidate, he will need to add somebody to the ticket that can somewhat level  the playing field. Dick Cheney aside, vice presidents generally don’t have a lot of influence in day-to-day governing. But having a running mate that matches up well with McCain would help ensure that all the other baggage McCain carries into the general election would be enough to sink him. It is highly unlikely McCain can find a running mate that can come close to leveling the playing field against Obama’s strengths.
I have a friend who is convinced that Obama is a fraud because he just tells everyone what they want to hear and he tries to use his race when talking to black audiences. I think this guy’s crazy though. Obama has a lot of good things to say.Watching the campaign can be difficult because of the way politics are, but you can’t label someone a fraud because they play politics. That’s the name of the game. I think Obama has the potential to grab a lot of the crossover and independent voters, but if Clinton is nominated those votes would go to McCain. The war is the main difference though. Do we pull out or stay for a long time? That is the only problem I have with the Obama campaign. I think pulling out quickly would destroy any progress we have made there. Forget domestic issues, the last thing we need is to further damage our reputation by letting a bad situation get worse. Resolving the war will be the difference with the moderates on both sides.